Fantasy baseball advice for Wednesday: Must you go with Musgrove? (2024)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Musgrove love

For the first time since returning from the IL on Aug. 12, San Diego Padres SP Joe Musgrove appears to have gotten his groove back. In his most recent start against the New York Mets, he produced his strongest outing of the season, firing seven shutout frames while allowing just one hit, zero walks, and striking out nine. Oh, and he needed just 75 pitches to do it.

You can now start Musgrove with confidence the rest of the way, beginning with Wednesday's road start against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals, currently trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by 10 games in the NL Central, have been below-average offensively in August, providing a soft landing spot for the Padres right-hander to build off his last outing.

Musgrove's roster percentage currently sits at 65%, which is above our 50% cutoff, but that's still too low. Following his matchup versus the Cardinals, he is tentatively lined up to square off against the Detroit Tigers, offering another favorable matchup for the righty. Grab him if he's still available on waivers, or even consider making a trade offer if you play in a custom league where the deadline hasn't yet passed. Musgrove appears poised to be a valuable asset going forward.

What you may have missed on Tuesday

By Todd Zola

• Last night's contest between the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers was suspended after just four pitches when rain hit the South Side much earlier than forecast. The game will be restarted tonight as part of what is essentially a straight doubleheader. Since the game will pick up within eight days of when it was started, the statistics will be applied to Tuesday's lineup in standard ESPN leagues with daily lineups. The numbers from the regularly scheduled game will go towards today's lineup.

• Garrett Crochet started yesterday for the White Sox but will be replaced by Chris Flexen when the game resumes. The second game is destined to be a bullpen affair. Andrew Heaney was yesterday's scheduled starter and will take the hill in today's first game. Anyone with Heaney active in yesterday's lineup will collect his stats. Jack Leiter will get the call for the Rangers in the nightcap.

• Kansas City Royals SP Michael Lorenzen was forced from last night's contest after straining his left hamstring while covering first base in the second. He stayed in for a little bit but was unable to complete the frame. His availability for this weekend's road start against the Houston Astros is unclear.

• Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers was not in last night's lineup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Manager Alex Cora divulged that Devers has been experiencing lingering shoulder soreness and he may hold Devers out for another game or two. The Boston bullpen also received some bad news with Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims placed on the IL. Both relievers were acquired at the trade deadline to try and fortify the bridge to closer Kenley Jansen.

• The already shorthanded Cincinnati Reds are down yet another man with OF Stuart Fairchild getting placed on the IL due to a sprained left thumb. Rece Hinds was summoned from Triple-A Louisville to occupy the open roster spot. The club expects to have OF Jake Fraley back on Saturday. Infielder Jeimer Candelario is still experiencing pain in his fractured toe. He was placed on the IL a week ago and will need more than the minimum stay. Matt McLain's chances to return this season incurred a setback earlier in August when he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back while also rehabbing a shoulder injury. He's undergoing tests, and if the results are positive, McLain could resume his rehab and still return in September.

• The Reds medical woes also extend to their pitching. Nick Lodolo was scratched from last night's scheduled start and put on the 15-day IL thanks to a sprained left middle finger. It's unclear how much action the southpaw will miss.

• The San Francisco Giants placed LHP Robbie Ray on the 15-day IL due to a strained left hamstring. He was pulled from Sunday's start and after a couple of days of evaluation, the club opted for the IL stint. It's unclear how long he will be out.

• Colorado Rockies OF Brenton Doyle missed his second straight game last night as a result of continued leg soreness. The club is at home all week, so hopefully Doyle can return soon.

Everything else you need to know for Wednesday

• Unlike Musgrove, Walker Buehler (39% rostered in ESPN leagues) is still trying to find himself. He struggled prior to landing in the IL due to a hip issue, and he's still struggling since having rejoined the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation earlier this month, surrendering seven runs over his last 7 1/3 innings. There's still time for a turnaround, but it's not worth risking your ratios when he takes the hill on Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles, the third-best team in MLB versus right-handed pitching this season (115 wRC+). Leave him on the wire for now.

• Houston Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti (19%) has a disappointing 4.94 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but those numbers disguise his recent run of success. Over his last eight starts, the 24-year-old right-hander has delivered a 3.21 ERA with an impressive 11.3 K/9 rate, which includes two starts with 12-plus strikeouts. A road matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies presents a stiff test, but it's worth noting that Philly's wRC+ since the All-Star break has been close to average (103). There's risk here, but also upside using Arrighetti as a streamer on Wednesday.

• Kansas City Royals SP Michael Wacha (33%), meanwhile, doesn't possess Arrighetti's upside, but he does provide a safer floor. In fact, you'll be hard-pressed to find a starter who has been more consistent in 2024 than Wacha. Not only does the righty hold a 2.45 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across his last 16 starts, but he's amazingly held opponents to three-or-fewer earned runs in every one of those outings. He's allowed two-plus earned runs just twice during that stretch. On Wednesday, Wacha faces off against a Cleveland Guardians offense that ranks bottom-five since the break, sporting an 85 wRC+. Stream away.

• Looking at bats, Pittsburgh Pirates hitters find themselves in a very good spot against Chicago Cubs SP Kyle Hendricks. The soft-tossing righty sports a gaudy 6.33 ERA in 23 appearances this season, and left-handed batters have lit him up to the tune of a .305/.362/.520 line. The switch-hitting Oneil Cruz (50%), who is batting .356/.434/.521 in August, is the top streaming play here, but lefty slugger Rowdy Tellez (1%) is also a quality target.

• Betting tip of the day: Arrighetti has established himself as a legit strikeout arm, posting a 10.8 K/9 and 27.5% K% across 23 starts. I'm taking over 5.5 strikeouts (-130) for his Wednesday matchup against the Phillies. He's surpassed that total four times in his last five starts, including a pair of double-digit strikeout performances.

Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 46%) at Kyle Freeland

• Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 50%) vs. Kyle Hendricks

• Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 45%) vs. Max Meyer

• Connor Norby (MIA, 2B -- 3%) at Freeland

• Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 31%) at MacKenzie Gore

• Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 21%) vs. Luis Severino

• Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 27%) vs. Meyer

• Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 6%) vs. Meyer

• Otto Lopez (MIA, SS -- 1%) at Freeland

• Michael Toglia (COL, 1B -- 12%) vs. Meyer

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

• Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 52%) at Paul Skenes

• Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B -- 79%) at Luis Castillo

• Nico ho*rner (CHC, 2B -- 86%) at Skenes

• Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 63%) at Peralta

• Salvador Perez (KC, C -- 97%) at Tanner Bibee

• Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 67%) vs. Kyle Harrison

• Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 76%) at Skenes

• Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B -- 65%) at Bibee

• Royce Lewis (MIN, 3B -- 85%) vs. Chris Sale

• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 72%) at Gore

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday

• Colorado Rockies vs. Meyer

• New York Yankees at Gore

• Oakland Athletics at Fernando Cruz